Cash game thinking

I played a hand a few weeks ago where I was faced with what would appear to be a very easy river decision, but after some thought decided against the obvious play. I was sitting in a $5/$10 six-max cash game.

The game was pretty good, with one or two weaker players but also three other regulars. Fellow CardRunners instructor John ‘Nicolak’ Kim was on my right, and over the past 30 minutes or so I had gotten the best of him with quite a few three-bets, where he either folded or if he did play back I had the best hand.

On this hand John opened UTG to $30 and I three-bet behind him with A-K. I don’t always three-bet this hand in this spot but John and I had been mixing it up a lot so I thought he’d play back at me more than usual. One of the weaker players flat-called my raise on the button, and John also called.

The flop came 9d-8h-8d. John checked to me and I chose to check as well because I really had no info on the weaker player behind me. Also, I don’t make a habit of trying to bluff weaker players who cold-call three-bets because I expect their range to be rather strong. Something like a bunch of pairs, some big Aces and a few suited Broadway hands. Luckily the weaker player checked and we got to see a free turn.

The turn was the Ad, one of the best turn cards I could see. At this point it’s very conceivable that either of my opponents could have a worse Ace than me, or a pair with a diamond that they are not going to fold on the turn. John again checked to me, and I bet $150 into the $300 pot. The button folded and John tagged along.

FIVE DIAMONDS

The river was the 7d. Bingo, I have the nut flush, so let’s try to get the rest of the money in the pot right? Well, not so fast. John’s calling range on the turn was probably something like A-Js+, A-Q with a diamond, 8-8, 9-9, T-T, J-J, Q-Q with a diamond. So on the turn my bet is good against that range, as I’m a 70%+ favourite and making lots of money. However, that river card changes things quite a bit. John is a smart player so I’m not really expecting him to call me down very light here.

I think he folds hands like T-T/J-J with a diamond, and any A-x hand except for the A-Qd which he’s not even calling all of the time, and he may even fold that hand preflop. So if we break down his range for calling my river bet it’s going to start with 9-9 and 8-8. This gives four combos of hands that have me beaten, so I need to come up with at least five combos of worse hands that John can call with for a bet to be better than checking. Q-Q with a diamond is three combos and A-Qd is only two combos (as two of the Aces are dead).

So, if John never folds the Qd or calls with worse than the Qd then I have an easy bet. But since I’m giving John quite a bit of credit, and the ability to fold the Jack and ten-high flush and even the Queen-high flush some of the time, that just doesn’t leave enough worse hands in his range for me to profitably bet the river. And even though it is very unlikely, if John were ever to check-raise bluff the river, betting would be even worse.

The bottom line here is that you should not just rely on the absolute strength of your hand in many situations, but consider its relative strength. How does your hand fare versus your opponent’s likely range?

Sure I have the nut flush, but that’s not so great when my opponent’s calling range only includes a few worse flushes, some full houses, and four of a kind. For all these reasons I decided to check. John showed 8-8 for four of a kind and won the pot.

CardRunners is the world leader in poker training with over 2,000 training videos, active strategy forums and other benefits focused on teaching you profitable poker. You can receive a CardRunners membership for free by joining Truly Free Poker Training.