This is the only hand in the session I was really unhappy with. It’s an object lesson in the problems you face playing a hand out of position and the dilemma top pair can bring in no-limit Hold’em.

Pre-flop, one player limps, the small blind completes and I have A-Q offsuit. I could raise as I probably have the best hand, but I check to disguise the hand and guard against building a big pot out of position.

The flop comes A-7-6 with two clubs. The small blind checks and I bet the pot. The limper then trebles the bet and the small blind folds. Already the alarm bells are ringing. I haven’t seen anything overly aggressive from this player and suddenly I’m playing one pair out of position. I consider re-raising to either win the pot right there or confirm I’m in trouble – however, I call with the intention of keeping the pot small, because as so often when out of position I’m playing a guessing game and I don’t want to invest a lot of money on a guess. Remember, I checked pre-flop so he may be underestimating my hand. His range of hands would probably include A-K down to A-8, A-7 or A-6 or 7-6 for two-pair, 7-7 or 6-6 for a set, or a flush draw. In very rough at-the-table calculation terms it looks like I’m about 50/50 to have the best hand.

The turn comes an innocentlooking 10♦ – although it makes one possible holding of his – A-10 – now a winner.

Damage limitation

My rough plan is to check-call and see this hand out for the minimum. The advantage of this approach is it minimises my losses when I’m beat and may encourage him to bet a worse hand than mine – a worse Ace or a bluff. If he checked the turn I would almost certainly bet the river for value. He has other ideas, though, and bets nearly the pot ($19). Everything he’s done now smacks of a strong hand – one that beats top pair/second kicker.

I think I should have folded at this point. The only hand that I can see him doing this with that I can beat is A-J, or an out-and-out bluff – of course I’m tying with A-Q. He might do this with a flush draw and the A♣ but I’m reaching now. The only complicating factor is that I didn’t raise pre-flop and he may be underestimating my hand.

I call hoping this will slow him up on the river. The river is another Ten pairing the Ten on the board. This is a good card for me as I’ve just counterfeited A-7, A-6 and 7-6. I contemplate making a small bet as a defence against being bluffed. Instead I check – if he has any of the two-pair hands he’ll almost certainly check behind. Instead he goes all-in.

At this point there’s $59 in the pot and it will cost me $38 to call. That’s odds of about 3/2 or, to put it another way, is there a 40% chance my hand is good? This is a clear fold for me. His most likely hands are 6-6, 7-7, A-K or A-10. There’s a much smaller chance that he’s moving in with A-Q, A-J, a counterfeited two-pair or a bluff.

Folding on the turn or playing the hand differently early on would have been better with this hand. Of course, it’s possible I was folding the winning hand but that’s part of good poker. The problem here is I was out of position with a vulnerable hand that was unlikely to improve – there are better spots to make your money in cash games.