Alec Torelli on Game Selection

I am frequently asked by my peers and by students what I think is the most important element of a successful poker player. Other similar questions include: ‘what do you think is the pitfall of most poker players?’ and ‘what do most poker players need to work on?’ While the answers to these questions may often be ambiguous, there is a single fundamental ‘skill’ that I believe will make all the difference to one’s chances of success. It is something that is not talked about enough, nor given the credit it is due, and that is game and opponent selection.

To highlight the significance of this skill, consider the following: if you were the tenth best poker player in the world, it would seem logical to assume that you were a profitable poker player. However, if you took the hypothetical scenario that you only played with the nine other best players, well then that would make you a loser!

For those of you who need further convincing, I have developed an analogy that I hope will better illustrate my point. Let’s imagine you are the coach of an NBA basketball team, The Washington Wizards. One morning, while you are reviewing tapes of a horrific loss you suffered the night before, you receive a phone call from the commissioner of the league.

NBA Commissioner: ‘Hello Jim!’
Jim: ‘Yes, Mr Commissioner, what can I do for you?’
NBA Commissioner: ‘Guess what Jim.’
Jim: ‘What?’
NBA Commissioner: ‘The league voted today that to improve ratings and generate interest from our viewers, we are going to grant ONE team exclusive rights to choose their schedule for the duration of the season.
Jim, you were selected!’

Jim hangs up the phone, astonished at the news he has just heard. What kind of system is that, he wonders? He can’t help but think how lucky he is to be the coach of the team selected for this exclusive right. After a very mediocre season so far of 12 wins and 23 losses, he could use all the help he can get. He sits back in his chair and begins to look at the competition. It takes him a whole thirty seconds to decide he wants to play the Denver Nuggets for the rest of the season. He can start to imagine how the rest of the season will play out: The Washington Wizards win 50 out of 54 games against the Denver Nuggets and finish the season in contention for an NBA title.

Now let’s imagine the alternative. Jim decides to play the best NBA team in the league for the duration of the season. What would people think? What would happen to his job? What would be the most probable outcome for his NBA team and the franchise as a whole? Obviously, if he came out on record saying, ‘Well everyone, I wanted to play the Celtics because I wanted a challenge and prepare myself for the toughest opponents the league has to offer,’ he would be fired on the spot!

Now, who can count the parallels this story has to game selection in poker? What we often forget is our freedom to choose against whom we are going to play! This would be a dream situation in any other sport. Imagine if Liverpool were given the option of playing West Brom every week for the rest of the season.

Keypoint

Exercising your right to choose your opponents can give you the upper hand before the game has even started

Beating the Best

In the above scenario it would maybe be acceptable to play the best team once or twice out of the remaining 54 games to push yourselves and prepare for the finals. Similarly when I poker, I will very occasionally play someone who I know is of equal, or a slightly greater, skill level than me in order to keep myself sharp. I should also note that I would never do this if it meant risking a significant part of my net worth. By the same token, Jim would be a moron if he was one game away from clinching a playoff spot and selected to play the Celtics for his final fixture of the season.

In the story above, Jim is still limited to the given teams in the NBA. However, in poker we are free to play in any game, which may include players with the highest levels of skill or those with a less developed game. What I’m talking about here is the freedom to move down the stakes. Sure, we all want to play in the NBA, and once we have had a taste of the big leagues, we hardly want to move down to college basketball. But, sometimes, we have to make sacrifices and takes steps down to accomplish great things.

Another interesting point to note is that although Jim’s Wizards were a huge favourite over the Nuggets, they still lost several games. Well guess what? The same is true for poker, although on a different scale. The only difference is that in poker the variance is higher – instead of winning 50 out of 54, you would be expected to win fewer games.

All of the parallels are there and when we put them into a poker context and consider the immense edge we create by choosing who we are going to play against, well, that my friends, can and will make all the difference.

You can find out more about Alec Torelli by visiting his website at www.alectorelli.net