European Football Betting

AC Milan, who started the season eight points adrift of the field due to their involvement in the Italian match-fixing scandal, will have their work cut out to catch city neighbours and de facto champions Inter in the race for the Scudetto. Nonetheless, the Rossoneri will be vastly encouraged by their phenomenal home form of last season, which saw them win all but one of their games.

It might be asking too much for Milan to replicate that superb record this season, particularly since they have failed to replace prolific striker Andriy Shevchenko, but even at meagre odds of 1/3 or thereabouts, Carlo Ancelotti’s side demand consideration when they play at home. Certainly, there were no signs on the opening day of the season, when they beat visitors Lazio 2-1, that the San Siro will again be anything other than a fortress.

Milan’s city rivals Inter – their already star-studded squad strengthened by three major signings in Hernan Crespo, Patrick Vieira and Zlatan Ibrahimovic – should also prove too powerful for most visiting teams. Inter’s home form last season was not quite in the Milan class, but it was still excellent: 16 wins, a draw, and two defeats, one of which was against the now departed Juventus. In view of these stats, it’s tempting to back whichever Milan club happens to be appearing in the San Siro at any given weekend, although quite what you do when they play each other is anybody’s guess.

But suggesting the two Milan clubs are likely to win the vast majority of their home games is a bit like saying Roger Federer is a good bet for Wimbledon or, back in the 1970s, that Red Rum had a decent chance in the National. Please, I can hear thousands of readers cry, tell us something we don’t know!

Okay, how about this: Fiorentina had an identical home record to Inter last season, and were particularly consistent against the lesser clubs. Indeed, no team outside the top-six managed to take even a single point from their visit to the Stadio Artemio Franchi. Having managed to hang on to Luca Toni, last term’s leading scorer in Serie A, and bolstered by the arrival of former Chelsea bad boy Adrian Mutu from Juve, Fiorentina will again be a force.

The only doubt concerns how the squad reacts to the 19-point penalty imposed by the Italian FA, which has effectively scuppered their European ambitions. If the sanction creates a cloud of despondency over the club, the team’s form could suffer; alternatively, if coach Cesare Prandelli uses the points deficit as a motivating tool, his free-scoring side may well match their eye-catching achievements of last season.

Finally, you would be well advised to keep abreast of Cagliari’s home results. Since gaining promotion in 2004, the Sardinians have drawn 20 out of 38 games in their island enclave, holding the likes of Juve, Inter and Fiorentina last term. ‘X’ should mark the spot for Cagliari home games this season, as indeed it should when Palermo (18 draws on their travels in the last two seasons) play away.