European Football Betting

Following Channel 4's love affair with Italian Football in the early 1990s, the Spanish league seems to now be capturing the hearts of the English more, perhaps thanks to Sky’s extensive coverage. Fans on home shores have grown familiar with the league’s surroundings and the goings on at Barcelona, Real Madrid and Valencia, just as they have at Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United in the Premiership. But there remains so much more to La Liga than the obvious choices. Although Valencia won the league as recently as 2004, Barca and Real completely dominate the Spanish football landscape and, inevitably, attract much of the money British punters invest in La Liga.

Turning a profit on these investments, however, has not been easy. Madrid’s indifferent displays over the past three years have made them a particularly poor bet, their short odds to triumph over their opponents having less to do with the side’s form than the club’s glittering reputation and cast of household names. Football matches, though, are not won by past achievements or photoshoots in Hola! magazine, and Madrid’s stats from last season make for grim reading. Despite finishing second in the table, the Madrilenos won fewer games at home than Seville, Osasuna or Celta Vigo and were even humbled in the capital by lowly Racing Santander, who only avoided relegation by a single point.

All in all, backing Real last season, especially at home, was probably one of the worst bets you could possibly have made anywhere. Whether new coach Fabio Capello, returning to the Bernabeu for a second spell, can inspire more consistent results remains to be seen.

Consistency is not a problem for Real’s great rivals, Barcelona. Winners of La Liga in the past two seasons, Frank Rijkaard’s men can be confidently backed most weekends. Last season Barcelona won 15 out of 19 games at the Nou Camp – an impressive record, but still not good enough to push you into profit had you backed the Catalans every time. It’s worth noting, though, that two of Ronaldinho and co’s slip-ups at home were against Real and Valencia; take these tricky fixtures out of the equation, and you would have got one over the bookies.

So, if betting on Real and Barca isn’t going to make you rich, where should you put your money? Deportivo La Coruna represent an interesting alternative. The Galician side have dropped to upper mid-table following consecutive third-place finishes in 2003 and 2004, but, intriguingly, have maintained their excellent away form. Last season, Depor won nine games on the road – a figure only surpassed by Barcelona – and lost just five times. With talented midfielder Juan Valeron back from injury and an influx of highly-rated younger players, Deportivo will be tough to beat and should be backed away from home, except when they visit the big three of Barca, Real and Valencia.

Another club from Galicia, Celta Vigo, were the surprise packages of last season, finishing sixth and Spain earning a UEFA Cup slot in their first term back in the top-flight. Celta’s home record was the bedrock of their success, with only Barcelona managing to better their 13 wins. Whether Celta can repeat that impressive form is debatable: three years ago they finished fourth, qualifying for the Champions League in the process, only to be relegated the following season. A compromise solution may be to back Celta at home except against Real, Barca, Valencia and Deportivo, all of whom won at Los Balaidos last season.

Every league, it seems, has a draw specialist and La Liga is no different. Last season it was mid-table Real Zaragoza, who drew no fewer than 16 of their 38 fixtures (six coming at home and a staggering ten on the road). Take note, though – that stat was more of a one-off than part of a long-term trend, so a safer bet may be to back Real Betis to draw. In the last three seasons, the Seville club have shared the spoils in slightly over a third of their matches. If Betis can maintain that ratio this season, small but nonetheless welcome profits of around 7% should follow at typical draw odds of 11/5.