British Lions vs South Africa

In 1997 the Lions tour of South Africa started with a shocking defeat. The squad were disheartened. Then, in midweek, Jon Bentley set off on a mazy run from the halfway line in the Transvaal night. Two, three, four defenders grasped at his shorts but missed and the charismatic Bentley touched down for a superb try, a moment of individual brilliance. It ignited the tour. The whole party were lifted and over the next month the series was won.

This past Saturday the Lions tour of 2009 started in similarly appalling fashion as they nearly lost to a third string side. A moment of magic is needed again. Wednesday could provide it.

However with the Bulls winning the Super 14 title in such emphatic fashion I fear for this tour party. They lack the cohesion, grunt or skill needed. It pains me as a fan but my punting hat has me all over the Springboks.

The Bulls' engine room with Matfield, Botha etc will be on duty. They play together every week, are hard and grizzled as nails and their confidence is soaring. The likes of Schalk Burger, Pierre Spies and Jaun Smit can be added so the back row is fast and ferocious in defense.

However, I don't like the front row. I think the talismanic Tendai 'Beast' Mtwarira can be undone by tight, hard and very technical scrummaging. A job for Andrew Sheridan perhaps. If the Lions can disrupt the front row at scrum time they can discombobulate the rest of the South African pack.

For the Lions we need the key men to stand up and excel and then a couple of bolters to have the tour of their lives. So O'Driscoll, O'Connell, Shane Williams and Martyn Williams need to get going and fast. The front men have to absorb pain and then inflict it with menace. If they do not stultify the Boks forward machine the scorelines will be embarrassing.

I also think despite the altitude the Lions need to do what the Boks don't want and that is create a less structured game. Plenty of mixing of penalty kicks to touch and then quick tap and goes. There has to be unpredictability. A lot more will become apparent as the midweek and warm up games continue - starting this Wednesday - but unless there is some magic we will be punting a big load of cash on the Boks.

Series win prices:

Springboks - 4/11
Lions - 11/4

There are similar prices for the first Test. I am putting one stake unit on Boks now at 4/11. I will trade each Test with one stake unit and I have one spare to add at any time. It is not a bold strategy but I want to win money from this tour and if we get off to a good start I will have the units won to add as well. I will update this as news or matches happen throughout the tour.